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What is your trading plan with respects to exits?

QuestionsCategory: QuestionsWhat is your trading plan with respects to exits?
Greg Baranoff asked 5 years ago
Hi Pat!I’ve followed you Mission Winners service as a VIP member since the beginning of February. I have several questions for you, but as this is my first communication I’ll limit it to one for now:What is your trading plan with respects to exits?By way of background, I understand and embrace trend following, having very successfully traded 46 international futures markets in North America, Europe and Asia from 1997 – 2003 based on the Turtle methodology. So I’m well versed in buying breakouts (e.g. buying higher highs) and holding winners or “letting them work” as you say, and trailing the trend with stops. I’m familiar with O’Neil’s work and criteria regarding exits (e.g. mostly take profits at 20%-25% gain as they are likely to reestablish new bases and one mathematically needs to pay for the losers).It hasn’t quite been three months, but I’ve noticed that you are often quick to sell a significant portion or all of your position relatively soon after an initial entry. I’ve calculated in the past where an initial position was quickly taken down to 10% after a few sales. Certainly this can depend on the quality of the base or setup. But I’m curious as to how you generally approach the stocks that one is looking to sit with. For the math to work, one needs “runners” or trending stocks to pay for the losers and accumulate worthwhile gains over time.KEYS is one stock that you’ve mentioned being long since its breakout. How much of your initial entry position size (in percent terms, not shares) are you still holding? Also how much of your initial position in CYBR are you holding? I’m asking to facilitate learning how you handle stocks that actually trendI recently bought WWD and MRCY on their breakouts as they appeared to meet the O’Neil criteria. In formulating a trading plan (which I’m still working on) I am presently inclined to hold half of a position for a 20% gain and half trying to ride a trend (such as KEYS and CYBR) on the balance. If one immediately sells 20% or more over the first or second day of a breakout, and possibly sells additional percentages of the position in relatively short order, it really affects the basic math of winners vs. losers (at least according to O’Neil’s +20%/+25% risking 7%-8%, although I’ve only been risking to below the low of a bar that closes under the 8 ema). I’m really trying to understand how the math works for you and what your trading plan stipulates for taking profits, especially what original percent you “normally” hold in stocks such as KEYS and CYBR from their original breakout points. I hope that you understand where I’m coming from with my question.Thanks. I appreciate what you are doing and respect your experience.Greg
2 Answers
Avatar photoOwen Staff answered 5 years ago

Hi Greg,
Video (1) from Pat:
https://youtu.be/wSISbnOtjx4

Avatar photoOwen Staff answered 5 years ago